Bitcoin's Price History - Investopedia

"We may be looking at one of the greatest arbitrage opportunities in the stock markets history. And this is largely due to the lack of understanding surrounding the opportunity connected to Bitcoin. This historical chart shows the true trajectory and trading range of Bitcoin:"

submitted by biomimic to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

"We may be looking at one of the greatest arbitrage opportunities in the stock markets history. And this is largely due to the lack of understanding surrounding the opportunity connected to Bitcoin. This historical chart shows the true trajectory and trading range of Bitcoin:"

submitted by WallStArb_throwaway to stocks [link] [comments]

Prepping for a Financial crisis / hyperinflation.

So what can we do about it? Any ideas are welcome.
It has a lot of "what if's"... It depends how tax and law play out with it.Historically speaking:
  1. -I stock bulk diesel for my cars while following historical averages to buy cheap.
  2. -Rotating food stock
  3. -Extra maintenance items, including the big things like a roof on your home if its coming time. Not joking I have a spare water heater and backup heating options, along with minor parts and filters to fix them. Same with cars and engines, (spark plugs, filters (all different filters), oil, cheap sensors that usually go bad and are only 4-10$ each, 1-2 extra alternator per vehicle, belts, mowing belts, bearings, grease, ... and I've literally had to use everything on that list and reorder.)
  1. -Security, Locks, Alarms, Cameras, people steal.
  2. A deep freezer for instance can stock food you use and buy on sale.
  3. Solar energy and solar heating supplements energy you use anyways
  4. Rainwater can be collected and used rather than buying from a source.
  5. A cooking gadget vs eating out.
  6. Tools and learning to fix things vs hire.
  7. House insulation.-Better insulative windows, and sealing.
  8. Geo-Thermal
  9. Gardening
  10. Bidet on toilet (lol serious though...)
  11. Backup power
  12. Your education can be a huge one, not just for prepping but also in your work.
  13. Things that prevent rot, fire, flood / humidity, or failure. Humidity is a silent killer to many preps. (water sump pumps, dehumidifiers, leak prevention, fire extinguishers / sprinklers, )
submitted by AntiSonOfBitchamajig to preppers [link] [comments]

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

What will undoubtedly happen from a macroeconomic (big picture) perspective... idiots

OKAY. So demand has been reduced dramatically around the world, our $21 trillion GDP has basically been paused for 2 months, so to keep it afloat (rough math), the government had to add $3.5 trillion to keep the economy running somewhat smoothly. That's a lot of printing, you idiots probably expect inflation. Wrong, step away from the US and look at what other countries are doing, the ECB (European Central Bank) and BOJ (Bank of Japan) are having to print trillions of dollars worth of EURO and YEN to keep their economies going, along with every other country getting pounded. Not only that, but since the US dollar makes up 70% of global transactions, in liquidity terms, trillions worth of euro and yen is MUCH MUCH more than any amount Jpow feels like printing, there's no way our printing could offset what the rest of the world is doing, so inflation isn't coming. If you want proof, just look at the euro/usd (going lower) and literally ANY emerging market currency is getting absolutely clapped vs the dollar.

Furthermore, not only is US corporate debt at an all time high, but emerging markets, the eurozone, and asia has borrowed more dollars than ever before at any point in history, basically everyone around the world's debt is denominated in US DOLLARS. So what's about to happen? It's already happening, demand for US dollars is going up because everyone around the world wants to borrow more to offset cash flow concerns and pay off existing debts, which will cause the dollar to increase in value. What happens when the whole world has debt in dollars and the dollar goes up in value? DEBT BECOMES MORE EXPENSIVE. This is DEFLATION, and in particular and even more terrifying DEBT DEFLATION, a phrase that would make Jpow absolutely shit himself (and he knows its coming). This has already started before the whole beervirus nonsense, look at Venezuela and Zimbabwe, they had too much dollar debt, no one wanted to lend to them anymore and whoops, their currency is worthless now. It's going to be like a game of musical chairs for people trying to get access to dollars, starting with emerging markets and eventually moving into the more developed economies. The result: massive corporate bankruptcies, countries defaulting on debt (devaluing their currencies) and eventually a deleveraging of massive proportions. This WILL occur and no amount of printing can stop it, it's already too far gone.

It doesn't matter what the stock market does, other markets around the world will be fucked, honestly it might cause the market to go up because of all the money fleeing other countries trying to find a safe place to live. Here are the plays assholes. TLT will go up because no matter what Jpow says, he doesn't control the fed funds rate, the market does, and US treasury bond yields have already priced in bonds going negative. CPI shows that we may see up to -3% inflation (3% deflation), meaning at .25% fed funds rate, the REAL rate is 3.25%, that is the worst thing possible during a deleveraging because it makes it harder to stimulate the economy, the fed has no choice, rates MUST go lower. Rates go lower, bond prices go up, TLT 12/18 $205c. Remember how I said scared foreign money will want to find a nice safe place to go when we go into the biggest debt crisis the world has seen in over 300 years? GLD 12/18 $240c. Finally, the dollar will rise in value as well so UUP 12/18 $28c.

As far the actual market, we hit a high of SPY 339.08 in February, fell to a low of 218.26 by mid March, and have since then retraced EXACTLY to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 290, and started to bounce lower from there. I'm no technical analyst, but I do know history. During the greatest crashes in stock market history, 1929, 2001, 2008, the Nikkei in 1989 (Japan) this exact same thing happened, market got scared and fell to lows, then smoked that good hopium for a few weeks or month to retrace between 50% and 61.8% back to previews highs, then absolutely fell off a cliff. If you don't believe me, go look at the charts. Now, I'm personally not going to be betting on the US market falling because of the fact that its just straight up not reflecting reality and there are much better ways to trade on what's occurring (see trades above), but I PROMISE, that we will not be seeing new highs at any point any time soon.

TLDR; The world is going to shit due to the dollars over-dominance of the world market, we will soon see the worst deleveraging in human history, and may very well have to come up with a new fiat money system (probably not bitcoin, but it wouldn't hurt to have some). TLT 12/18 $205c, GLD 12/18 $240c, and UUP 12/18 $28c. If you wanna be an autist and buy weeklys, I can't help you, but I basically just gave you the next big short, so you're welcome.

DISCLAIMER: I didn't say what price to buy at for a reason, timing is extremely important for trades like this, so don't FOMO in and overpay, you will get clapped.
submitted by Rezuwrecked_ to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Message to all of my followers:

Hope everyone is having a good ass day today. This might be long. Please upvote so others are more likely to see in their feeds.
I have really wanted to start sharing my other forms of trading with you guys. I trade forex and did well this week betting on usd strength against the safe haven currency Japanese yen.
I’m also invested at $2,200 into a crypto currency called cindicator. I have 392,197 shares. Trying to get to 700,000 for access to their highest tier of trading indicators. I’ve followed this company for a long ass time and their product is great. If the price gets back to its high of $0.37, it’s a 6,959% profit for me. I’m expecting it to hit AT LEAST a dollar during this next bull run due to cnd/btc charts. Crypto currencies are similar to pennystocks in their volatility.
I also have very good evidence that bitcoin is about to start moving up very rapidly. The halving event that pushed it up to $20,000 just happened again two weeks ago. I and probably everyone else are expecting $100,000 bitcoin by October 2021 due to bitcoin stock to flow model. That indicator was designed by some billion dollar hedge fund manager and its accuracy is something I’ve never seen before. Please read the bottom half where it explains how that indicator works. Truly impressive.
I’m also learning how to trade SPY options, and I just made my first winning trade after a week of losing by buying SPY 298c 5/29
So my question is, are you interested in learning other forms of trading? By order of difficulty, we’d start with crypto currency. Mainly bitcoin and a handful of others. It’s pretty straightforward until you get into cold storage. Then forex which is complicated, and options further down the line after I understand them fully. Or if the consensus is forex or options, we’ll start there.
My main goal in Reddit is to make you guys better traders/ investors. One of my next personal goals is to get my series 7 and 65 licenses and do this shit professionally.
I’ve done the math, and if my average return in forex at ~10% per month stays consistent, managing $5,000,000 in client money and charging 20% would mean I make $80,000 a month. I’m currently building my trading history on Oanda as the first step in this process. So if you start seeing me in suits and ties on my streams, you’ll know what’s up.
Let me know if you’re interested. I’m not sure how I would do it. Maybe just include [BTC] in my headlines about crypto currency stuff when I post so that it’s easy to skim over for those not interested. I don’t want to start an isolated subreddit or anything like that.
submitted by trevandezz to u/trevandezz [link] [comments]

One Year Update: 38M FIREd

Well, February 22nd makes it one whole year. I think that's deserving of a top level post, right?
Here are screenshots of the Mint Trends, which has every single expense from the past year categorized. I've added comments on each page.
Expenses Overview
Auto Expenses
Food Expenses
Home Expenses
Utility Expenses
Tax Expenses
Healthcare Expenses
Entertainment Expenses
Main takeaways, my total expenses for the year was $37,700, but I'm going to dismiss about $15,000 of that as "one time" expenses from paying off my car and my furniture loan. A more reasonable number for my annual spend is $22,700.
With my car payment gone, my highest expense category is Food, averaging $500 per month. This has room for improvement.
Healthcare will look artificially low last year because of taking Tax Credits up front. This year I am not and will be paying $325 per month for health insurance. At ~$4000 per year, this puts healthcare at nearly 20% of my total expenses.
Nothing else is particularly interesting. That $22,700 figure is a reasonable real-world number for me, but for future planning I'd still inflate that to $25,000 just to have more wiggle room. I may look into traveling this year, which would add some expense.
Investments:
Vanguard Investments: (All in VTSAX)
Other LTCG holdings: $145,000 -> $291,000 (other investment accounts and bitcoin)
HSA Investment Account: $6000 -> $7400, with another $1700 in the "cash" holdings of the HSA.
$9000 cash in Money Market & Checking Account.
Finances Going Forward
I had earned income last year so I didn't start my Roth Conversion Ladder last year. This year I decided I will be converting the $12,400 standard deduction + $9600 of the first tax bracket for a nice round $22,000 converted. Yes I'll owe a little bit of taxes, but it sets up my Roth with $22k in 5 years which should cover the majority of my expenses. And with $350k currently in tIRA and converting $22,000 per year, I won't be able to chew through it all before actual retirement age.
I have about $20k from an old stock purchase plan that unlocks come April, which I will be selling and likely moving over to my money market account to shore up my "cash" holdings.
My plan is to not really tap any of my "normal" investment accounts for as long as possible. I've been deferring to selling Bitcoin if I need to move some cash over. Last year I sold 3 bitcoin, one for $9300 in June, and then two at the end of December (for tax year Capital Gains reasons) for $7300 each. These were all LTCG at 0% taxed. AGI for last year is around $35,000.
The Living Part:
There's all the boring expenses and financial stuff. Now for the ever painful question that my beloved Grandmother loves to ask, "But gosh, what do you do with all of your time! I can't imagine being retired at your age!"
Step 1, restful sleep. During my working career I lived off 6 hours of sleep every day. It made for exhausting weekends trying to "make it up." And luckily I'm not a generally stressful person or else it'd have been worse. But now I go to bed when I'm tired, and whenever I naturally wake up, I get up. This can lead to VERY weird hours since I'm often an extreme night owl. But I generally get 9-10 perfect restful uninterrupted dream-filled hours of sleep.
I'm betrayed by my "Food Expense" breakdown, but I really am cooking more and eating better. I drink a lot of coffee and water at home and generally try to eat only one meal per day, but sometimes lunch and dinner. I don't normally eat breakfast, just have coffee when I wake up. And did I mention how much less painful it is to go grocery shopping when it's in the middle of the day and everyone's at work. It's so nice.
I spend a lot of time on reddit browsing my front page, and I check out the YouTubers I follow that post daily, then check out any of the irregular posters. Depending on how much good stuff there is, this could go on for a few hours.
I have a lot of hours playing video games. I tend toward puzzle games or building games (Factorio, Satisfactory) because they scratch that itch in my engineering brain. There are times at night where I'll spend hours on this website: https://www.puzzle-sudoku.com/ and play Sudoku or Nonograms or any of the other puzzle types on the bottom of the page.
I'm doing my best to watch every single last show on Netflix. It's a daunting task, though it's surprising how often I drift back toward watching the same smattering of Star Trek: The Next Generation episodes rather than try something new. But I try and take recommendations and work my way through shows.
And Podcasts! The joy of joys is when I come across a new-to-me podcast that has a huge backlog. I found a great ST:TNG rewatch podcast that had 108 episodes already done. I spent like 2 months watching the episode of TNG then immediately listening to their podcast about that episode, repeat repeat repeat. I'm currently working my way through The Adventure Zone, I'm on episode 46 of 155 with them. And they keep advertising the other podcasts The McElroys do so I'm sure I'll roll into one of those next. For many people podcasts are background noise, but I'll often just sit on the couch and concentrate on just listening the podcast.
Outside of home, I can't wait for the weather to get nicer so I can go on more walks. Being a night owl I like going for walks at night. I live near our city center so I'm within blocks of city hall, the main library branch, and the fountain / park.
I jump at any opportunity to hang out with friends. It's just about every weekend that we are getting together to hang out and play board games. Like I mentioned in one of the breakdowns, I've started to play D&D with my buddy and his wife. I'd never played before but he's been DMing for years (but hasn't had a group for 10+ years now). He's glad to be playing again, his wife loves it, and it's super convenient for them to stay home with the 5 month old daughter. (And baby gets to hang out with Uncle Oracle.)
I get together with former co-workers every few months to keep in touch with them. One in particular I have a standing every-2-month bar date with. I remind them every so often that if they want to go out to lunch ever to just call me.
Personal History
Just a quick personal history in closing. I was an automotive engineer working for OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers in the Metro Detroit area. In the 2008 downturn I lost my job and was unemployed for 2 years and ended up getting my house foreclosed in 2010. By the time i got a job in March of 2010 I was basically at $0. I had a tiny amount in an 401k, had about $20,000 in credit card debt from being unemployed.
But then I got a very well paying engineering job ($108k annual and eligible for time-and-half overtime). I kept living like I was unemployed, spent as little as possible and saved as much as possible. Through my parents I secured a mortgage on a nice 1 Bed / 1 Bath 900 sq ft condo. I paid off my CC debt in less than a year and kept banking cash and maxing my 401k every year.
I heard about bitcoin in early 2013 (from a guildmate in World of Warcraft, believe it or not) and jumped on board. All time bitcoin price chart (log scale) for those unfamiliar with the history. I got in before the first spike to $1000 in December of 2013, and kept buying throughout the downswing in 2014 / 2015. In 2017 I sold 5.6 BTC for a total of $6000 and paid off the last of my student loans and my car, then a few months later I sold 4.25 BTC for $6700 and paid off the last of my condo mortgage. So in May of 2017 I was officially debt free and had a net worth of about $200,000.
Then in the fall of 2017 was when bitcoin exploded. I knew I had to take profits here. Every time the price went up 10% I sold another bitcoin. $7500, $9000, $10700, $13000, $15500, $18600. I sold all the way up. I ended up selling about $100,000 in bitcoin that year and I pushed most of it into my Roth IRA and Brokerage accounts.
Then I really started thinking about FIRE in early 2018. Started doing the math, tried to see what my expenses would be, and thought I'd give it ago. I've told myself from day 1 that I'd give this trial a solid 2 years. If I don't feel good about it, or the money doesn't seem right, then I'll still only be 40 years old and could (IMO) easily jump right back into an engineering gig. So I targeted early 2019 so I could frontload my 401k for two months, grab the annual bonus, then peace out.
TL:DR: 38, FIREd, Money's looking right, Life is feeling right, everything is fine
submitted by Oracle_of_FIRE to financialindependence [link] [comments]

For Trading July 15th

For Trading JULY 15th
JPM Earnings a Beat But Loan Loss Grows 875%
NASDAQ Still Weaker
MODERNA Publishes Results
Today’s market got off to a soft start and after an initial dip it started up. The exception was the NASDAQ. I went home with a few SMH puts and as that ETF fell quickly, I took a nice gain only to see it reverse and move higher with the rest of the markets. The early excitement with the DJIA futures quickly evaporated and we didn’t do much from 11:00 – 1:00 but then started higher and after a new high of day, +450 or so, we sold off from 3:00 to 3:30 before another rally to new high of day and a close +556.79 (2.13%), NASDAQ +97.74 (.94%), S&P 500 +42.30 (1.34%), the Russell +24.69 (1.76%) and the DJ Transports +159.29 (1.71%). Market internals were about as expected for an up day with the NYSE 2:1 and NASDAQ 5:3 after its lower open and rally. Volume was down slightly lower than yesterday. The DJIA showed all 30 names up with the biggest winner UNH +60DP’s (earning tomorrow morning), HD +55, AAPL and CAT +43, MCD +39, and TRV, MCD, and V all adding 30 DP’s. The strongest sectors were energy, industrials, health care and materials. Weaker were consumer discretionary and financials. The U.S. Dollar continued weak and commodities were generally higher. Economic numbers, CPI was released this morning and came in at + .6% for CPI, up from an expected .5%, and Core CPI was + .2% vs .1% expected. This meant that the numbers showed benign consume inflation, although anyone who shops in a grocery store knows that’s not the case!
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/PcshhlWfjIc
SECTORS: JP Morgan (JPM) reported earnings that were a beat on both earnings and revenues, but after the numbers moved the stock up in early extended trading, the market started looking at the fact that JPM increased its Loan Loss provisions increased from $1.2billion to a monstrous $10.5billion, an 875% increase. The stock had traded as high as $102.50 early, a level that it never achieved in the official market session. The stock finished $98.21 +.56 (.57%). Also reporting were WFC with a loss and was $24.25 -1.16 (4.57%), C also a disappointment finishing $50.15 -2.05 (3.93%), TRV a loss but closed $118.55 +4.31 (3.77%). Delta (DAL) reported their biggest loss in history and revenues back at 1980’s levels. It fell to 26.11 -.71 (2.65%). The January high was $62.48. On the good news side, Moderna (MRNA) reported that their trial of its Covid-19 vaccine produced twice the therapeutic response of patients that had actually recovered from the disease. The stock, a star since the government gave them a grant to help with the development of the vaccine has moved from a low around $18.00 to $87.00 in May had finished the day $75.04 +3.26 (4.54%) ran up to a new high of $89.76 and is currently trading $86.38 + 11.34 or an additional 12%.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +1.16, BGS +.80, FLO +.32, CPB +.83, CAG +1.13, MDLZ +1.20, KHC +1.01, CALM +.15, JJSF +2.19, SAFM +1.24, HRL +1.03, SJM +2.51, and PBJ $16.30 +.06 (.37%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +4.75, ABBV +2.89, REGN +27.12, ISRG +15.21, GILD -.18, MYL +.37, TEVA +.13, VRTX +9.01, BHC +.33, INCY +2.46, ICPT +.27, LABU +6.31, and IBB $116.00 +4.75 (3.46%).
CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.17, CGC +.15, CRON +.13, GWPH +6.31, ACB -.18, CURLF -.07, KERN -.16, and MJ $13.34 +.14 (1.79%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +3.55, GD +.54, TXT +.78, NOC +4.15, BWXT -.42, TDY +7.52, RTX +2.04, and ITA $159.61 +2.56 (1.63%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.35, JWN +.05, KSS +.78, DDS +.75, WMT +2.84, TGT +1.77, TJX +.19, RL +2.27, UAA +.08, LULU +5.85, TPR +.10, CPRI +.09, and XRT $43.96 +.86 (2.00%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +15.77, AMZ -16.68, AAPL +8.39, FB +1.85, NFLX -4.00, NVDA +15.11, TSLA +66.84, BABA -1.19, BIDU -1.54, CMG +21.08, CAT +7.74, BA +7.51, DIS +4.88, and XLK $107.56 +1.72 (1.63%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +7.37, JPM +1.45, BAC +.23, MS +.88, C -1.23, PNC +.32, AIG +1.28, TRV +7.13, AXP +2.89, V +5.48, and XLF $23.95 +.39 (1.66%).
OIL, $40.29 +19. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and while we were there, we sold off to close below that number. The stocks were higher with XLE $37.00 +1.65 (4.67%).
GOLD $1,813.40 -.70. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,829.80. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market while we have been back in the Silver (SLV) calls @ $ .92 from Friday. Silver rallied from a down overnight session and the calls closed $1.28 +.16. We also added a GLD 7/24 170 call position @ $1.22 that finished $1.59 +.20.
BITCOIN: closed $9,310 + 40. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.73 + .13 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

For Trading July 15th

JPM Earnings a Beat But Loan Loss Grows 875%
NASDAQ Still Weaker
MODERNA Publishes Results
See Gold to see some our open option positions..
Today’s market got off to a soft start and after an initial dip it started up. The exception was the NASDAQ. I went home with a few SMH puts and as that ETF fell quickly, I took a nice gain only to see it reverse and move higher with the rest of the markets. The early excitement with the DJIA futures quickly evaporated and we didn’t do much from 11:00 – 1:00 but then started higher and after a new high of day, +450 or so, we sold off from 3:00 to 3:30 before another rally to new high of day and a close +556.79 (2.13%), NASDAQ +97.74 (.94%), S&P 500 +42.30 (1.34%), the Russell +24.69 (1.76%) and the DJ Transports +159.29 (1.71%).
Market internals were about as expected for an up day with the NYSE 2:1 and NASDAQ 5:3 after its lower open and rally. Volume was down slightly lower than yesterday. The DJIA showed all 30 names up with the biggest winner UNH +60DP’s (earning tomorrow morning), HD +55, AAPL and CAT +43, MCD +39, and TRV, MCD, and V all adding 30 DP’s. The strongest sectors were energy, industrials, health care and materials. Weaker were consumer discretionary and financials. The U.S. Dollar continued weak and commodities were generally higher. Economic numbers, CPI was released this morning and came in at + .6% for CPI, up from an expected .5%, and Core CPI was + .2% vs .1% expected. This meant that the numbers showed benign consume inflation, although anyone who shops in a grocery store knows that’s not the case!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/PcshhlWfjIc
Our Discord forum link is in the video description..
SECTORS: JP Morgan (JPM) reported earnings that were a beat on both earnings and revenues, but after the numbers moved the stock up in early extended trading, the market started looking at the fact that JPM increased its Loan Loss provisions increased from $1.2billion to a monstrous $10.5billion, an 875% increase. The stock had traded as high as $102.50 early, a level that it never achieved in the official market session. The stock finished $98.21 +.56 (.57%). Also reporting were WFC with a loss and was $24.25 -1.16 (4.57%), C also a disappointment finishing $50.15 -2.05 (3.93%), TRV a loss but closed $118.55 +4.31 (3.77%). Delta (DAL) reported their biggest loss in history and revenues back at 1980’s levels. It fell to 26.11 -.71 (2.65%). The January high was $62.48.
On the good news side, Moderna (MRNA) reported that their trial of its Covid-19 vaccine produced twice the therapeutic response of patients that had actually recovered from the disease. The stock, a star since the government gave them a grant to help with the development of the vaccine has moved from a low around $18.00 to $87.00 in May had finished the day $75.04 +3.26 (4.54%) ran up to a new high of $89.76 and is currently trading $86.38 + 11.34 or an additional 12%.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +1.16, BGS +.80, FLO +.32, CPB +.83, CAG +1.13, MDLZ +1.20, KHC +1.01, CALM +.15, JJSF +2.19, SAFM +1.24, HRL +1.03, SJM +2.51, and PBJ $16.30 +.06 (.37%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +4.75, ABBV +2.89, REGN +27.12, ISRG +15.21, GILD -.18, MYL +.37, TEVA +.13, VRTX +9.01, BHC +.33, INCY +2.46, ICPT +.27, LABU +6.31, and IBB $116.00 +4.75 (3.46%).
CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.17, CGC +.15, CRON +.13, GWPH +6.31, ACB -.18, CURLF -.07, KERN -.16, and MJ $13.34 +.14 (1.79%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +3.55, GD +.54, TXT +.78, NOC +4.15, BWXT -.42, TDY +7.52, RTX +2.04, and ITA $159.61 +2.56 (1.63%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.35, JWN +.05, KSS +.78, DDS +.75, WMT +2.84, TGT +1.77, TJX +.19, RL +2.27, UAA +.08, LULU +5.85, TPR +.10, CPRI +.09, and XRT $43.96 +.86 (2.00%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +15.77, AMZ -16.68, AAPL +8.39, FB +1.85, NFLX -4.00, NVDA +15.11, TSLA +66.84, BABA -1.19, BIDU -1.54, CMG +21.08, CAT +7.74, BA +7.51, DIS +4.88, and XLK $107.56 +1.72 (1.63%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +7.37, JPM +1.45, BAC +.23, MS +.88, C -1.23, PNC +.32, AIG +1.28, TRV +7.13, AXP +2.89, V +5.48, and XLF $23.95 +.39 (1.66%).
OIL, $40.29 +19. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and while we were there, we sold off to close below that number. The stocks were higher with XLE $37.00 +1.65 (4.67%).
GOLD $1,813.40 -.70. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,829.80. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market while we have been back in the Silver (SLV) calls @ $ .92 from Friday. Silver rallied from a down overnight session and the calls closed $1.28 +.16. We also added a GLD 7/24 170 call position @ $1.22 that finished $1.59 +.20.
BITCOIN: closed $9,310 + 40. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.73 + .13 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

I cannot wait to see newbies get pumped and dumped upon during this "muh halvening", it's like watching a new freshman class adapt to the harsh reality of high school when school opens...

I've been in crypto since 2017, not entirely an OG but I did make over 2 million dollars and was heavily invested for a bit over 2 years (it was my full time job after my first 200k). Believe me, I've seen it ALL. The greed, the lies, the bullshit, the scamming, the desperation, the fear, the elation/euphoria. Before that, I played the stock market as well, though not as successfully as crypto.
You're not likely to see another 2017 again... that was crypto's mainstream introduction to the world and the FOMO was off the charts and people got burned HARD, but what we do see is the crypto market makers capitalize on every single opportunity to make a quick buck. There is no reason for BTC to pump because of the halvening, that is a completely fabricated narrative to drive up the price. less mined bitcoin doesn't suddenly increase the value of bitcoin.
Do people not seem to understand that if BTC was miraculously adopted as the "world currency", then the world would be even MORE unequal and unfair than it is today? Using current USD equivalent value, you would have people who are worth 10 TRILLION dollars for doing nothing but buying and holding early, and other people who wouldn't even own half of what the poorest African does.
Does this not strike people as absurd? To really think that bitcoin would "free us" from financial control? This is the reality about money: Money derives it's power first from MILITARY FORCE, and secondly from the perception of economic stability. That's it.
Money isn't based off gold, or holding 21 bitcoins, or some other stupid shit like that. It's based off who has the biggest guns, and secondly off markets. I mean let's pretend that governments wouldn't suppress crypto when they feel like releasing their own digital currency, what the fuck would a world look like where bitcoin became the main currency???
Lol. Seriously, think about it. It would be the stupidest thing ever. There'd be nothing "decentralized" about it. it would concentrate more power into the hands of a few than we've EVER seen in history.
Anyways, I'm going to guess we pump to 11-12k then massive dump to 8k when corona outbreak round 2 happens. Don't get hurt, kiddos!
submitted by hellybeaner to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Murmurs of the Sea | Monthly Portfolio Update - March 2020

Only the sea, murmurous behind the dingy checkerboard of houses, told of the unrest, the precariousness, of all things in this world.
-Albert Camus, The Plague
This is my fortieth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $662 776
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $39 044
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $74 099
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $109 500
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $150 095
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $29 852
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $197 149
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 630
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 855
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $6 156
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $119 254
Secured physical gold – $19 211
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $13 106
Bitcoin – $115 330
Raiz* app (Aggressive portfolio) – $15 094
Spaceship Voyager* app (Index portfolio) – $2 303
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 492
Total portfolio value: $1 566 946 (-$236 479 or -13.1%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 40.6% (4.4% under)
Global shares – 22.3%
Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
International small companies – 3.0%
Total international shares – 27.6% (2.4% under)
Total shares – 68.3% (6.7% under)
Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over)
Australian bonds – 4.8%
International bonds – 10.4%
Total bonds – 15.2% (0.2% over)
Gold – 8.8%
Bitcoin – 7.4%
Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
Comments
This month saw an extremely rapid collapse in market prices for a broad range of assets across the world, driven by the acceleration of the Coronavirus pandemic.
Broad and simultaneous market falls have resulted in the single largest monthly fall in portfolio value to date of around $236 000.
This represents a fall of 13 per cent across the month, and an overall reduction of more the 16 per cent since the portfolio peak of January.
[Chart]
The monthly fall is over three times more severe than any other fall experienced to date on the journey. Sharpest losses have occurred in Australian equities, however, international shares and bonds have also fallen.
A substantial fall in the Australia dollar has provided some buffer to international equity losses - limiting these to around 8 per cent. Bitcoin has also fallen by 23 per cent. In short, in the period of acute market adjustment - as often occurs - the benefits of diversification have been temporarily muted.
[Chart]
The last monthly update reported results of some initial simplified modelling on the impact of a hypothetical large fall in equity markets on the portfolio.
Currently, the actual asset price falls look to register in between the normal 'bear market', and the more extreme 'Global Financial Crisis Mark II' scenarios modelled. Absent, at least for the immediate phase, is a significant diversification offset - outside of a small (4 per cent) increase in the value of gold.
The continued sharp equity market losses have left the portfolio below its target Australian equity weighting, so contributions this month have been made to Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS). This coming month will see quarterly distributions paid for the A200, VGS and VAS exchange traded funds - totalling around $2700 - meaning a further small opportunity to reinvest following sizeable market falls.
Reviewing the evidence on the history of stock market falls
Vladimir Lenin once remarked that there are decades where nothing happen, and then there are weeks in which decades happen. This month has been four such weeks in a row, from initial market responses to the coronavirus pandemic, to unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy responses aimed at lessening the impact.
Given this, it would be foolish to rule out the potential for other extreme steps that governments have undertaken on multiple occasions before. These could include underwriting of banks and other debt liabilities, effective nationalisation or rescues of critical industries or providers, or even temporary closure of some financial or equity markets.
There is a strong appeal for comforting narratives in this highly fluid investment environment, including concepts such as buying while distress selling appears to be occurring, or delaying investing until issues become 'more clear'.
Nobody can guarantee that investments made now will not be made into cruel short-lived bear market rallies, and no formulas exist that will safely and certainly minimise either further losses, or opportunities forgone. Much financial independence focused advice in the early stages of recent market falls focused on investment commonplaces, with a strong flavour of enthusiasm at the potential for 'buying the dip'.
Yet such commonly repeated truths turn out to be imperfect and conditional in practice. One of the most influential studies of a large sample of historical market falls turns out to provide mixed evidence that buying following a fall reliably pays off. This study (pdf) examines 101 stock market declines across four centuries of data, and finds that:
Even these findings should be viewed as simply indicative. Each crisis and economic phase has its unique character, usually only discernible in retrospect. History, in these cases, should inform around the potential outlines of events that can be considered possible. As the saying goes, risk is what remains after you believe you have thought of everything.
Position fixing - alternative perspectives of progress
In challenging times it can help to keep a steady view of progress from a range of perspectives. Extreme market volatility and large falls can be disquieting for both recent investors and those closer to the end of the journey.
One perspective on what has occurred is that the portfolio has effectively been pushed backwards in time. That is, the portfolio now sits at levels it last occupied in April 2019. Even this perspective has some benefit, highlighting that by this metric all that has been lost is the strong forward progress made in a relatively short time.
Yet each perspective can hide and distort key underlying truths.
As an example, while the overall portfolio is currently valued at around the same dollar value as a year ago, it is not the same portfolio. Through new purchases and reinvestments in this period, many more actual securities (mostly units in ETFs) have been purchased.
The chart below sets out the growth in total units held from January 2019 to this month, across the three major exchange trade funds holdings in the portfolio.
[Chart]
From this it can be seen that the number of securities held - effectively, individual claims on the future earnings of the firms in these indexes - has more than doubled over the past fifteen months. Through this perspective, the accumulation of valuable assets shows a far more constant path.
Though this can help illuminate progress, as a measure it also has limitations. The realities of falls in market values cannot be elided by such devices, and some proportion of those market falls represent initial reassessments of the likely course of future earnings, and therefore the fundamental value of each of those ETF units.
With significant uncertainty over the course of global lock-downs, trade and growth, the basis of these reassessments may provide accurate, or not. For anyone to discount all of these reassessments as wholly the temporary result of irrational panic is to show a remarkable confidence in one's own analytical capacities.
Similarly, it would be equally wrong to extrapolate from market falls to a permanent constraining of the impulse of humanity to innovate, adjust to changed conditions, seek out opportunities and serve others for profit.
Lines of position - Trends in expenditure
A further longer-term perspective regularly reviewed is monthly expenses compared to average distributions.
Monthly expenditure continues to be below average, and is likely to fall further next month as a natural result of a virus-induced reduction of shopping trips, events and outings.
[Chart]
As occurred last month, as a function some previous high distributions gradually falling outside of the data 'window' for the rolling three-year comparison of distributions and expenditure, a downward slope in distributions continues.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 71.9% 97.7% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 87.7% 119.2% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 70.2% 95.5%
Summary
This month has been one of the most surprising and volatile of the entire journey, with significant daily movements in portfolio value and historic market developments. There has been more to watch and observe than at any time in living memory.
The dominant sensation has been that of travelling backwards through time, and revisiting a stage of the journey already passed. The progress of the last few months has actually been so rapid, that this backwards travel has felt less like a set back, but rather more like a temporary revisitation of days past.
It is unclear how temporary a revisitation current conditions will enforce, or exactly how this will affect the rest of the journey. In early January I estimated that if equity market fell by 33 per cent through early 2020 with no offsetting gains in other portfolio elements, this could push out the achievement of the target to January 2023.
Even so, experiencing these markets and with more volatility likely, I don't feel there is much value in seeking to rapidly recalculate the path from here, or immediately alter the targeted timeframe. Moving past the portfolio target from here in around a year looks almost impossibly challenging, but time exists to allow this fact to settle. Too many other, more important, human and historical events are still playing out.
In such times, taking diverse perspectives on the same facts is important. This Next Life recently produced this interesting meditation on the future of FIRE during this phase of economic hardship. In addition, the Animal Spirits podcast also provided a thoughtful perspective on current market falls compared to 2008, as does this article by Early Retirement Now. Such analysis, and each passing day, highlights that the murmurs of the sea are louder than ever before, reminding us of the precariousness of all things.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

FAANG Slips again

For Trading MAY 28TH
FAANG Slips Again, Russell Surges ALL 11 S&P Sectors Higher
Today’s market was up after continued strength in the futures and markets around the world and although the DJIA ran well ahead for the first half of the day but by the close the only laggard was the NASDAQ. The DJIA finished +553.16 (2.21%), NASDA +72.14 (.77%), S&P 500 +43.36 (1.48%), the Russell +43.28 (3.11%) and the DJ Transports were +255 (2.86%). The DJIA was 25 up and only 5 down with the biggest winners being GS +92, UNH +60, AXP +48, MMM +41, JPM +38, CAT, BA, and HD all +43 DP’s. Market internals were a bit soft with volume roughly 30% lower than normal and A/D 3:1 on NYSE and NASDAQ >2:1 gainers. The strong sectors were financial, industrials and home builders while the weaker were Information tech (FAANG), communication services, consumer discretionary, and energy. On the news front we had those two do-nothing groups of legislators actually BOTH pass a bill for sanctions against China for violations of human rights. Unfortunately, that leaves the Orange Emperor still in charge of getting the message across to his very best friend and extreme admirer who has continued to promise to execute on Phase 1 of that perfectly marvelous and magnificent Trade seal, the quality and scope of which has never been seen in the history of the world, that the BS he’s pulling in Hong Kong, withs eyes on Taiwan will not be tolerated. Yeah, right!!!
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/R0VWMEB_rvU
SECTORS: The news was catch-up yesterday and a solid follow-thru today. I find it increasingly difficult to separate the market from the economy, and that has been to my detriment. The two trades we have on right now should, by all rights work out in our favor. I started the position small and I averaged down in both today. The XRT trade in particular seems to me to have the best potential, although there are some earnings this week, AND I HATE TO PLAY EARNINGS, we are so overbought and extended that I set aside that particular worry. We also took some profits in NEM, and re-entered today about $6 lower.
FOOD SUPPLY: was HIGHER with TSN ++1.10, BGS +1.15, FLO +.09, CAG +.77, MDLZ +.71, KNC +.91, CALM +.73, JJSF +8.45, SAFM +1.56, LANC +7.59, GO -.13, HRL +1.19, and PBJ $31.62 +.87 (2.83%).
BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB +5.59, ABBV-.71, REGN -2.21, ISRG +3.64, GILD +1.42, MYL +.86, TEVA +.57, VRTZ +12.01, BHC +.40, INCY -.46, ICPT -.97, LABU -.10, and IBB $131.80 +.99 (.76%).
CANNABIS: This group was LOWER with TLRY -.26, CGC -.13, CRON +.06, GWPH -5.15, ACB -.31, PYX +.39, NBEV -.06, CURLF -.08, KERN +.27, and MJ $14.25 -.03 (.21%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +=25.98, GD +6.73, TXT +1.43, NOC +16.81, BWXT +2.99, TDY +9.71, RTX +3.13, and ITA $167.19 +7.94 (4.99%).
RETAIL was HIGHER with M +1.73, JWN +3.11, KSS +3.28, DDS +3.05, WMT -1.27, TGT +1.98, TJX +.20, RL -1.16, UAA +.83, LULU +.09, TPR +.65, CPRI +1.60, and XRT $41.64 +1.38 (3.43%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER after being higher earlier with GOOGL -1.09, AMZN -18.36, AAPL +1.07, FB -5.05, NFLX+5.23, NVDA -8.51, TSLA -4.47, BABA -.72, BIDU -.14, CMG -24.00, CAT +5.54, BA +12.01, DIS +1.47, and XLK $96.94 +.55 (.57%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +14.44, JPM +6.32, BAC +1.72, MS +3.39, C +4.53, PNC +7.63, AIG +.52, TRV +3.97, V +.28, and XLF $24.06 +1.00 (4.34%).
OIL, $32.81 -1.54. Oil was unable to make a new high today and after that failure it fell all the way back 31.75 before closing 2/3s down on the range. If we break 30.72 on a closing basis, I think we can work lower. The stocks generally lower and XLE was $40.06 +.51 (1.29%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,710.70 +5.10. After trying to break to new highs Gold failed to follow-thru and opened slightly lower and fell all the way back to trade $1,700 yesterday, and this morning got only worse hitting $1,684 before turning back up and closing up on the day. We bought back 2 lots of NEM roughly $6.00 lower that our sale yesterday.
BITCOIN: closed $9,170 +385. After breaking down from just over 10,000 and trading 8,220 we started back up and traded all the way back, it failed to make a new recovery high. We broke all the way back to trade 8815 today but managed a move to close just over $9000. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $10.50 +.32 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

For Trading April 13th

For Trading April 13th
Stocks Rally, Again
Oil Fails on Cutbacks
Today was another day in which the market rallied on bad news. First time unemployment claims were 6.6 million vs the 5 million expectations, a big number by itself. The FED hit the market with it’s announcement of a new $2.3 TRILLION of emergency lending to businesses and municipalities. The UK announced its plan to fund their fiscal needs and in Germany, Merkel rejected the Italians demand for a joint euro debt deal. U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell sharply to 71 vs. 89 in March and the consensus of 79.3. The DJIA finished +285.80 (1.22%), NASDAQ +62.68 (.77%), S&P 500 +39.84 (1.45%) the Russell again beat all others at +55.06 (4.62%) while the DJ Transports were +84.53 (1.04%). Market internals were 5.5:1 on NYSE and 3:1 NASDAQ. Volume was light again, but on a pre-holiday trading day that’s par for the course. Financials, real estate and Industrials were strong and Health care, technology and communication services weak. DJIA were 19 up and 11 lower with no triple-digit gainers or losers. JPM +58, GS +50, HD +49, and MCD +42 DPs, while UNH -22, jnj -14 and INTC -13 DPs. Tonight’s Closing Commentary is available https://youtu.be/O7pZP678FZs
There was also an excellent interview on CNBC HalfTime with Chamath Palihapitiya about bailouts and the American public that I’ve added. I think it’s especially interesting given that he is not a politician, but rather a venture capitalist. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/chamath-palihapitiya-us-needs-to-let-hedge-funds-billionaires-fail.html Besides this portion of the interview Chamath discusses that if the government wants to help “people” and make them even, they should take their last years W2 and pay them monthly what they earned last year and not to support the banks by taking illiquid assets off their balance sheets.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1800 members.
SECTORS:
BIOPHARMA: was MIXED with BIIB +3.05, ABBV +1.49, REGN +.63, ISRG -5.71, MYL +.85, TEVA +.34, VRTX -2.66, BHC +2.42 (15.43%), INCY -.94, ICPT +2.21, LABU +1.41 AND IBB $113.98 +1.04 (.92%).
CANNABIS: This group was MIXED with TLRY -.12, CGC -.23, CRON -.27, GWPH -1.32, ACB +.03, PYX +.30, NBEV -.03, CURLF +.06, KERN +.14, and MJ $11.45 +.14 (1.34%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +13.59, RTX +2.88, GD +4.11, TXT +1.55, NOC +7.33, BWXT +.85, TDY -1.23 and ITA $156.00 +5.05 (3.35%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.91, JWN +2.68, KSS +3.08, DDS +.01, JCP +.025, WMT +.24, TGT -.23, TJX -.11, RL +4.25 (5.58%), UAA +.75, LULU +7.50, TPR +.93, CPRI -.08 and XRT $33.55 +1.17 (3.61%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were MIXED with GOOGL +1.00, AMZN +5.22, AAPL +3.08, FB +1.09, NFLX +.84, NVDA -2.70, TSLA +45.66 (8.32%), BABA -.08, BIDU +1.67, BA +8.63 (5.88%), CAT -1.50, DIS +4.48 and XLK $85.20 +.02 (.02%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +8.44, JPM +9.50 (10.07%), BAC +1.64, MS +1.90, C +3.74, PNC +6.50, AIG +2.42, TRV +4.97, AXP +3.42 and XLF $23.38 +1.19 (5.36%).
OIL, $22.76 -2.33. Oil started the day with the announcement that Russia and Saudi’s were in agreement about a cut in production of “up to” 20 million barrels/day. Later in the day the WSJ reported that the cuts were not as reported and involved cuts of only half that and only for a limited period of time. Prices had been higher by almost 13% before the reversal which sent priced -7%. In all of history, oil has only had this size range 3 times and 2 of those times were this month. Oil stocks were higher and XLE finished $34.75 +.53 (1.55%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,752.80 +68.50. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1742 before falling back to close $60 off the highs and below $1700. Today was a major move to the upside and the close is the highest since September 2012 and sets up a move towards the highs at $1,800 from 2011.
BITCOIN: closed $7,290 -45. After we traded in a short-range day followed by a $1,000 range on Friday BTC closed above $7,000 for the first time since it broke to the downside early last month. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.80 -.05 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

FAANG Slips Again

For Trading MAY 28TH
FAANG Slips Again, Russell Surges ALL 11 S&P Sectors Higher
Today’s market was up after continued strength in the futures and markets around the world and although the DJIA ran well ahead for the first half of the day but by the close the only laggard was the NASDAQ. The DJIA finished +553.16 (2.21%), NASDA +72.14 (.77%), S&P 500 +43.36 (1.48%), the Russell +43.28 (3.11%) and the DJ Transports were +255 (2.86%). The DJIA was 25 up and only 5 down with the biggest winners being GS +92, UNH +60, AXP +48, MMM +41, JPM +38, CAT, BA, and HD all +43 DP’s. Market internals were a bit soft with volume roughly 30% lower than normal and A/D 3:1 on NYSE and NASDAQ >2:1 gainers. The strong sectors were financial, industrials and home builders while the weaker were Information tech (FAANG), communication services, consumer discretionary, and energy. On the news front we had those two do-nothing groups of legislators actually BOTH pass a bill for sanctions against China for violations of human rights. Unfortunately, that leaves the Orange Emperor still in charge of getting the message across to his very best friend and extreme admirer who has continued to promise to execute on Phase 1 of that perfectly marvelous and magnificent Trade seal, the quality and scope of which has never been seen in the history of the world, that the BS he’s pulling in Hong Kong, withs eyes on Taiwan will not be tolerated. Yeah, right!!!
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/R0VWMEB_rvU
SECTORS: The news was catch-up yesterday and a solid follow-thru today. I find it increasingly difficult to separate the market from the economy, and that has been to my detriment. The two trades we have on right now should, by all rights work out in our favor. I started the position small and I averaged down in both today. The XRT trade in particular seems to me to have the best potential, although there are some earnings this week, AND I HATE TO PLAY EARNINGS, we are so overbought and extended that I set aside that particular worry. We also took some profits in NEM, and re-entered today about $6 lower.
FOOD SUPPLY: was HIGHER with TSN ++1.10, BGS +1.15, FLO +.09, CAG +.77, MDLZ +.71, KNC +.91, CALM +.73, JJSF +8.45, SAFM +1.56, LANC +7.59, GO -.13, HRL +1.19, and PBJ $31.62 +.87 (2.83%).
BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB +5.59, ABBV-.71, REGN -2.21, ISRG +3.64, GILD +1.42, MYL +.86, TEVA +.57, VRTZ +12.01, BHC +.40, INCY -.46, ICPT -.97, LABU -.10, and IBB $131.80 +.99 (.76%).
CANNABIS: This group was LOWER with TLRY -.26, CGC -.13, CRON +.06, GWPH -5.15, ACB -.31, PYX +.39, NBEV -.06, CURLF -.08, KERN +.27, and MJ $14.25 -.03 (.21%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +=25.98, GD +6.73, TXT +1.43, NOC +16.81, BWXT +2.99, TDY +9.71, RTX +3.13, and ITA $167.19 +7.94 (4.99%).
RETAIL was HIGHER with M +1.73, JWN +3.11, KSS +3.28, DDS +3.05, WMT -1.27, TGT +1.98, TJX +.20, RL -1.16, UAA +.83, LULU +.09, TPR +.65, CPRI +1.60, and XRT $41.64 +1.38 (3.43%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER after being higher earlier with GOOGL -1.09, AMZN -18.36, AAPL +1.07, FB -5.05, NFLX+5.23, NVDA -8.51, TSLA -4.47, BABA -.72, BIDU -.14, CMG -24.00, CAT +5.54, BA +12.01, DIS +1.47, and XLK $96.94 +.55 (.57%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +14.44, JPM +6.32, BAC +1.72, MS +3.39, C +4.53, PNC +7.63, AIG +.52, TRV +3.97, V +.28, and XLF $24.06 +1.00 (4.34%).
OIL, $32.81 -1.54. Oil was unable to make a new high today and after that failure it fell all the way back 31.75 before closing 2/3s down on the range. If we break 30.72 on a closing basis, I think we can work lower. The stocks generally lower and XLE was $40.06 +.51 (1.29%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,710.70 +5.10. After trying to break to new highs Gold failed to follow-thru and opened slightly lower and fell all the way back to trade $1,700 yesterday, and this morning got only worse hitting $1,684 before turning back up and closing up on the day. We bought back 2 lots of NEM roughly $6.00 lower that our sale yesterday.
BITCOIN: closed $9,170 +385. After breaking down from just over 10,000 and trading 8,220 we started back up and traded all the way back, it failed to make a new recovery high. We broke all the way back to trade 8815 today but managed a move to close just over $9000. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $10.50 +.32 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

The halvening and the Stock to Flow Model is not a hype cycle but fundamental. EXPLAINED

There is a difference between hype and fundamentals. Wall st bonus or Chinese New Year or new partnership is a hype cycle.
Buy the rumour sell the news is a hype cycle.
The halvening is a fundamental event. Bitcoin is fundamentally undervalued compared to its market cap right now. Intrinsic value is greater than market cap. Intrinsic value is 8.5k right now. The price of Bitcoin on the spot exchanges always reverts back to the intrinsic value over time. The stock to Flow model is cointegrated which means that if you plot the error between Bitcoins traded price and the model predicted price it forms a bell curve around the intrinsic value. This bell curves proves the legitimacy of the model If the model was wrong the plot wouldn't result in a bell curve. It would have chaotic spurious data.
A lot of people think stock to Flow model is just good because it looks accurate on the chart. But truth is it mathematically checks out
Here is how you can work it out yourself:
1/ First, you need to choose a program like Microsoft excel.
2/ Then, you want to load a dataset of the price history of BTC. So in one column you'll have the day and in the other column you'll have the price.
3/ You'll want this data to go back as far as possible to have as much data as possible. So thats 10 years of daily data. Would give you 3650 rows.
4/ Then, on the next column you need to put the predicted price of bitcoin according to S2F.
5/ Then, in the next column you want to subtract the previous column from the one before it. This new column will be your error data set. Which tells you each day how overshot or undershot the predicted price was.
6/ For the S2F flow to be cointegrated, the error dataset should form a bell curve (it should be "normally distributed") To calculate whether the error data set is normally distributed you need to use a normality test. There are several in data analysis. A popular one is the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test.
7/ After you conduct this test it will tell you how closely the error set matches a bell curve. The more it matches a bell curve the better the prediction model is.
Bitcoins Stock to Flow model: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/
Hodlers play a huge role in the stock to flow.
submitted by Robby16 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

05-08 09:44 - 'When will the retracement come? #FUD' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/gotthis7 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 220-230min

'''
Hey, guys! First of all - congratulations to all the HODLers, you deserve it! Soon you'll be able to take a ride in your new Lambo with the friends who doubted your sanity. In other news - it really seems a bit weird how BTC is escalating. I'm damn happy (and damn angry for not being able to buy in the big dip), but still very cautious because history shows a retracement before the moon. Ok, this only bothers me because I'm new here, but have been following the growth for a year. My argument is the upcoming economic crash. Most of the analysts predict the price just from the charts and not considering psychology and overall market situation. As BTC did drop after the stock market drop, I suppose it should drop when people will need their $1200 money that now is $1600. Not even talking about the eurozone collapse (7-10% crash this year). Most people haven't seen the Stock2Flow chart and don't believe $100k price in 18 months.
I need two things from you, guys: 1) What strain should I smoke to ease my nerves and just fucking HODL on? Just buy-in heavily on the discounts when they finally come as Warren Buffet would say. 2) How to argument my wife that we need to invest a couple more thousand if the retracement comes? (we're living pretty frugal and she's kinda supportive but doesn't understand a thing about BTC)
'''
When will the retracement come? #FUD
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: gotthis7
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

For Trading April 13th

For Trading April 13th
Stocks Rally, Again
Oil Fails on Cutbacks
Today was another day in which the market rallied on bad news. First time unemployment claims were 6.6 million vs the 5 million expectations, a big number by itself. The FED hit the market with it’s announcement of a new $2.3 TRILLION of emergency lending to businesses and municipalities. The UK announced its plan to fund their fiscal needs and in Germany, Merkel rejected the Italians demand for a joint euro debt deal. U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell sharply to 71 vs. 89 in March and the consensus of 79.3. The DJIA finished +285.80 (1.22%), NASDAQ +62.68 (.77%), S&P 500 +39.84 (1.45%) the Russell again beat all others at +55.06 (4.62%) while the DJ Transports were +84.53 (1.04%). Market internals were 5.5:1 on NYSE and 3:1 NASDAQ. Volume was light again, but on a pre-holiday trading day that’s par for the course. Financials, real estate and Industrials were strong and Health care, technology and communication services weak. DJIA were 19 up and 11 lower with no triple-digit gainers or losers. JPM +58, GS +50, HD +49, and MCD +42 DPs, while UNH -22, jnj -14 and INTC -13 DPs. Tonight’s Closing Commentary is available https://youtu.be/O7pZP678FZs
There was also an excellent interview on CNBC HalfTime with Chamath Palihapitiya about bailouts and the American public that I’ve added. I think it’s especially interesting given that he is not a politician, but rather a venture capitalist. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/chamath-palihapitiya-us-needs-to-let-hedge-funds-billionaires-fail.html Besides this portion of the interview Chamath discusses that if the government wants to help “people” and make them even, they should take their last years W2 and pay them monthly what they earned last year and not to support the banks by taking illiquid assets off their balance sheets.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1800 members.
SECTORS:
BIOPHARMA: was MIXED with BIIB +3.05, ABBV +1.49, REGN +.63, ISRG -5.71, MYL +.85, TEVA +.34, VRTX -2.66, BHC +2.42 (15.43%), INCY -.94, ICPT +2.21, LABU +1.41 AND IBB $113.98 +1.04 (.92%).
CANNABIS: This group was MIXED with TLRY -.12, CGC -.23, CRON -.27, GWPH -1.32, ACB +.03, PYX +.30, NBEV -.03, CURLF +.06, KERN +.14, and MJ $11.45 +.14 (1.34%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +13.59, RTX +2.88, GD +4.11, TXT +1.55, NOC +7.33, BWXT +.85, TDY -1.23 and ITA $156.00 +5.05 (3.35%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.91, JWN +2.68, KSS +3.08, DDS +.01, JCP +.025, WMT +.24, TGT -.23, TJX -.11, RL +4.25 (5.58%), UAA +.75, LULU +7.50, TPR +.93, CPRI -.08 and XRT $33.55 +1.17 (3.61%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were MIXED with GOOGL +1.00, AMZN +5.22, AAPL +3.08, FB +1.09, NFLX +.84, NVDA -2.70, TSLA +45.66 (8.32%), BABA -.08, BIDU +1.67, BA +8.63 (5.88%), CAT -1.50, DIS +4.48 and XLK $85.20 +.02 (.02%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +8.44, JPM +9.50 (10.07%), BAC +1.64, MS +1.90, C +3.74, PNC +6.50, AIG +2.42, TRV +4.97, AXP +3.42 and XLF $23.38 +1.19 (5.36%).
OIL, $22.76 -2.33. Oil started the day with the announcement that Russia and Saudi’s were in agreement about a cut in production of “up to” 20 million barrels/day. Later in the day the WSJ reported that the cuts were not as reported and involved cuts of only half that and only for a limited period of time. Prices had been higher by almost 13% before the reversal which sent priced -7%. In all of history, oil has only had this size range 3 times and 2 of those times were this month. Oil stocks were higher and XLE finished $34.75 +.53 (1.55%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,752.80 +68.50. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1742 before falling back to close $60 off the highs and below $1700. Today was a major move to the upside and the close is the highest since September 2012 and sets up a move towards the highs at $1,800 from 2011.
BITCOIN: closed $7,290 -45. After we traded in a short-range day followed by a $1,000 range on Friday BTC closed above $7,000 for the first time since it broke to the downside early last month. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.80 -.05 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

04-26 14:54 - 'An Outsiders Take On Bitcoin Price Prediction' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/giantsIV removed from /r/Bitcoin within 854-864min

'''
Hello everyone, I've never really visited this community before but I was hoping to share a few ideas with everyone!
 
First off, I've never purchased bitcoin nor have I really had any other ideas about it other than 'man I wish I got in on that early.' Being quarantined has made me expand my research into areas i've never really touched before and i've made a decent little discovery that hopefully a few of you can appreciate.
 
I don't know how to exactly define my career other than a trend finder. Anywhere from finance to microeconomics trends, one of the things I like to do when finding stocks that will break out is using [Bollinger Bands]1 . They great for seeing the upper and lower sides of a stock. I also like using a 5 day [exponential moving average]2 . None of what i do is new it's basic really. I like finding stocks that have an EMA that hugs the upper Bollinger Band with consistency. [Here's an example using Amazon]3 look at the pink line thats the EMA. I like to follow that EMA hugging the upper Bollinger Band until the inevitable separation of the two begin and the stock price begins its downfall. This has shown to be no different with Bitcoin. [Here is the chart of Bitcoin leading up to its first big burst.]4 Notice the pink line and how close it is to the upper band. Had I seen this way back then I would've been in on it in a second.
Did you see how when the price shot up the upper band and pink EMA line began their separation? [Let's take a closer look]5
We can see that BTC had been trending upward but then suddenly in late November there was a dramatic upturn, this won't be that last time we see that. You can see the EMA get tighter with that upper band. Around that time the price was approximately $8,900 roughly half of what the eventual top price would be of the boom.
 
Quickly deep separation begins and price begins its free fall.
 
[Lets fast forward a year to early 2019.]6 The EMA had dove below the Moving Average and then we see the curve back trending upward.
[Now lets take a closer look at the daily charts]7
There it is again. The EMA hugs the upper band after a dramatic upturn in mid May. The approx. price around this time is $6,700 roughly half of what the top price will be at the boom.
And then history repeats itself. The separation begins and the price begins its free fall again.
 
[Going back to this chart]8 and looking towards the right we can see where we are now. It'll be interesting to watch going forward if that EMA begins its upward swing again. Im excited to follow it and hopefully you are too!!
Good luck all!
'''
An Outsiders Take On Bitcoin Price Prediction
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: giantsIV
1: www*i*vestop*di*.c**/te*ms*b*b**lingerbands.*sp 2: www.*nve*topedia.c*m*te*m*/e/**a.a*p 3: i*gur*com/e2*AN*L 4: im*ur.c*m/*/x*yROQ* 5: img*r**om/a*w*T0N7d 6: imgur*c*m/a/J*i**Vk 7: ***ur.com/a/l9*LS*n 8: imgur.c**/***Gi7YVk
Unknown links are censored to prevent spreading illicit content.
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

For Trading March 3rd

For Trading March 3rd
FROM RECORD LOSS TO RECORD GAIN
DJIA ADDS 5.1%
China PMI WORST IN HISTORY
Today’s market was another dramatic move today with the futures moving erratically over night starting with a -600 open, and gyrating over 1000 DPs in both directions before an open +180, consolidated that gain and by 11:00 started moving higher but the real move mirrored the Friday sell-off adding just short of 600 DPs in the last 30 minutes. The close was +1293.96 (5.1%) for the biggest gain in history, NASDAQ +384.80 (4.49%), S&P 500 +136.01 (4.6%), the Russell +42.07(2.85%) and the DJ Transports, the laggard +87.49 (.93%). Market internals were better, but not excessive, with NYSE A/D just 4:1 and NAZ barely 3:1. Volume expanded nicely with the big names getting the biggest action. DJIA had no losers at all and only 2 names, CSCO and PFE that weren’t up double digits while AAPL was +173 and UNH +127 DPs lead the way. It was all about the terrible numbers (PMI from China) and the stated promises of stimulus from Japan and others who said they would “do whatever is necessary.” I don’t have to tell you again that while this helps the market, it also devalues all currencies and expands deficits. Energy got a bid after the oil fell to $43.32, an 8-day slide from $55 (21.8%) and a 38% move from the 1/8/2020 highs. The bounce was impressive with a close of $46.75 +1.99 (4.5%). The S&P Tech sector was up 5.7%. While the Transports were up (barely) the airlines were still week along with the lack of any real recovery in cruise lines and booking sites. The ISM for February barely eked out a 50.1, down from 50.9 in January, and since it’s backward looking you can expect that it’s set up to fall (COVID-19) for this month and maybe more. On the other hand, construction spending increased 1.8% beating .7% expectations, and it had an upward revised to + 0.2 from – 0.2. This was the largest m/m increase since Feb 2018.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: It was a great day pretty much across the board. As mentioned above, there were major gains in FAANG that I’ll list in its sector below. We also had some “merger Monday” news with GILD buying FTSV, a name I wrote up here twice last week. The company will add to the GILD cancer drug pipeline. The stock, which traded in December at $12.00 ran to $45 late in the month, jumped on Friday to $58 (+18.8%) and GILD is paying $95.50 for the stock. Not exactly bargain-basement pricing.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with most up 4-5%. BIIB +19.50 (6.32%), ABBV +3.07, REGN +20.18 (4.5%), ISRG +25.11 (4.7%), MYL +.26, TEVA +.22, VRTX +8.26 (3.69%), BHC +.88, INCY +3.65 (4.84%), LABU +5.15 (11.36%), and IBB $120.00 +6.12 (5.37%).
CANNABIS: stocks were MIXED with TLRY -.87, CGC -.45, CRON -.11, GWPH -1.30, ACB +.01, PYX +.01, NBEV +.05, CURLF -.06, KERN +.68 (8.96%) and MJ $14.20 +.29 (2.08%). I believe this group is broken and it will be a while before any of these are investable. Not untradeable, but uninvestable!
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with most up by 3.5 to 4%, LMT +8.74 (2.36%), RTN +3.90, GD +5.34 (3.34%), TXT +1.17, UTX +3.48 (2.66%), NOC +2.85, BWXT +.63, TDY +8.58 (2.54%) and ITA $209.82 +8.93 (4.45%).
RETAIL was MIXED and the brands were the strongest. M -.23, JWN -.22, KSS -.63, DDS +1.44, JCP +.0029, WMT +8.33 (7.74%), TGT +5.46 (5.3%), TJX +2.39, RL +2.10, UAA -.09, LULU +11.09 (5.1%), TPR +.15, CPRI -.39 and XRT $40.92 +.64 (1.59%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were the BIGGEST GAINERS with GOOGL +44.78, AMZN +72.25, AAPL +24.62 (8.9%), FB +3.83, NFLX +11.97, NVDA +5.83, IBM +3.26, TSLA +95.11 (14.3%), BABA +3.48, BIDU +1.02, BA +13.49 (4.9%), CAT +3.36, DIS +2.35, and XLK $93.50 +5.13 (5.81%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with the market and a bounce in rates, GS +7.25, JPM +5.20, BAC +.85, MS +1.51, C +3.94, PNC +6.24 (4.94%), AIG +.69, TRV +7.86 (6.56%), AXP +3.92, and XLF $27.95 +1.36 (5.11%).
OIL, $46.75 +1.99 (4.5%). We went to a new recent low @ $43.32 before turning higher and trading to over $47.50 before closing +1.99. The stocks were HIGHER with the XLE $47.10 +1.83 (4.04%). I think we will test supply at $50- $51.
METALS, GOLD: $1,594.80 +27.50. After the breakdown on Friday, that I feel was a forced liquidation of a failed hedge fund or other large institution, Gold started the day higher and consolidated most of the day. I think that it is headed higher shortly.
BITCOIN: closed $8,975 +275. We broke to the upside to hit $10,620 last week and have had daily rallies and sell-offs, but the weekly is on support and I think we will move higher. We own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $10.36 +.51 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

A List of Sidehustle Ideas from SidehustleSchool.Com

Source: https://www.sidehustleschool.com/
[More ideas in the comments below too.]
...
  1. "Cheap Plane Tickets" Site Becomes Million-Dollar Hustle ...
  2. $10,000 Side Hustle Helps Musician Land Full-Time Job ...
  3. 13-Year-Old Australian Creates Schoolyard Lollipop Fortune ...
  4. 23-Year-Old College Student Uses “Sweatcoin” App to Earn ...
  5. 3D Printing Brings Cosplay Into 21st Century
  6. A Life of Travel Leads to a House-Designing Hustle
  7. A Packed Closet Leads to Secondhand Subscription Boxes ...
  8. Academic Advisor Creates Profitable Karaoke League
  9. Accidental Side Hustle Becomes Decorative Family Business ...
  10. Accountant Earns $233751 Reselling Items He Buys at Walmart
  11. Acrobatic Mom Jumps Through Hoops to Become High-flying ...
  12. Active “Type 1” Lifestyle Inspires Sticky, Successful Side Hustle
  13. Actress Becomes Organizational Director of Organization ...
  14. Aerospace Apprentice Soars to Seven-Figure Sales Heights ...
  15. Alcohol Fueled Idea Sells Over 1500 Shirts in Less Than a Year
  16. An Everyday Bag That Gives Back to Women in India
  17. Art Teacher Draws Her Way Into Ceramic Shop
  18. Artistic Cartographer Maps Out Successful Side Hustle
  19. Artistic Duo Sells 8000 T-Shirts in One Year
  20. Aussie Engineer Moves to Farm, Earns Passive Income
  21. Aussie Stretches Out with Online Store for Tall Women
  22. Aussie Student Starts Million-Dollar Bikini Biz
  23. Australian Hacker Creates Passive Income Anatomy Course ...
  24. Auto Employee Earns $100,000 Selling Stickers on Instagram ...
  25. Avid Travelers Turn Finding Deals Into Vacation Planning ...
  26. Bargain Hunter Designs One-of-a-Kind Flea Market
  27. Bartender Brews Up Brewpub Tour Biz
  28. Bass Player Starts BassLayerz Clothing Hustle
  29. Bean-Lover Grinds Way To $4,000/Month Family Coffee ...
  30. Bearded Man Grows $500 A Month Grooming Business
  31. Bearded Man from Finland Cashes In on Holiday Cheer
  32. Beekeepers Build Buzzing Backyard Business
  33. Birds of a Feather Flock to Your Bank Account
  34. Bitcoin YouTuber Earns Thousands in Affiliate Commissions ...
  35. Blogger Earns $140,000 from Beta Phase of Online Course ...
  36. Blogger Turns Leftover Cherries Into $5,000/Month Income ...
  37. Boy Scout Merit Badge Leads to Leatherworking Lifestyle ...
  38. Bring Your Own Cannabis to this “420-Friendly” Painting Class
  39. British Pub Manager Bakes Pork Pies for Profit
  40. Brooklyn Photographer Gets Paid to Throw Confetti at People ...
  41. Business Students Make $125,000 Selling Headphone ...
  42. Busy Marketing Professional Fills Niche with Biking Wine Tours
  43. CLASSROOM: Four Ways to Identify Moneymaking Ideas ...
  44. CLASSROOM: Goals, Agenda, and Your First Assignment ...
  45. Call Center Employee Uses Patreon to Fund LGBTQ Podcasts ...
  46. Canadian Moms Invent Baby Monitors for Active Toddlers ...
  47. Canadian Sports Enthusiast Earns $1,000/Month Selling ...
  48. Car Enthusiast Races Towards Reselling Success
  49. Cat Lover Creates Cat-tivating Portrait Series
  50. Catholic Designer Creates Stylish Apparel Line
  51. Childhood Game Master Earns $1 Million from Nerdy ...
  52. Coffee for Firefighters Brings the Heat!
  53. College Ministry Leader Starts Digital Agency
  54. Colorado Nutritionist Reworks Role to Get Paid Twice
  55. Comic Book Curator Creates Custom Crate Subscription ...
  56. Continuing Education Directory Earns Six Figures
  57. Copywriter Carves 140 Characters into $50,000 in Cash
  58. Corporate Employee Makes $350,000 Selling Mosquito ...
  59. Coupon Code Site Earns Copious Profits
  60. Crafter's Shop for Dreadlock Wearers Unlocks $3,500/Month ...
  61. Creative Illustrator Creates Creative Podcast for Creatives ...
  62. Curated Gift Boxes for Breakups and Baby Bumps
  63. Data Geek Charts Course From Analyst to Author
  64. Data Scientist Turns Teaching Frustrations Into Recurring ...
  65. Designer Earns Extra $5000/Month Posting Logos on Instagram
  66. Designer Illustrates Success with Personalized Wedding ...
  67. Designer Performs Magic, Turns Dream Into Reality
  68. Designer Turns Bad Parking Into $25,000 Per Year
  69. Detroit Women Make Jewelry for Profit and Social Good
  70. Digital Camera Blogger Snaps Into Passive Income
  71. Distracted Coach Creates Accountability Software
  72. Dog Stocking Hustle Earns Husky Payoff
  73. Dutch Personal Shopping Service for Kids Measures Up
  74. EXTENDED CUT #13: When to Let Go of Good Ideas
  75. EXTENDED CUT #14: Start a Service Business in Less Than ...
  76. EXTENDED CUT #5: How to Choose Between Multiple Ideas ...
  77. Electrical Engineer Becomes Romance Novel Cover Model ...
  78. Electrical Engineer Sells $800 Swarovski Crystal Bikinis
  79. Elementary School Teacher Pans for Gold in New Zealand ...
  80. Engineer Codes His Way To $3,700 Per Month
  81. Engineer Earns 7-Figures from “Crowd-Purchasing” Project ...
  82. Engineer Makes $64000 Selling Nerdy Playing Cards on Reddit
  83. Engineer Reprograms Herself, Finds Confidence to Start Over ...
  84. Enjoy an Ice Cold Beverage in a Mug Made from Ice
  85. Equine Lover Makes $5,000; Stables Business to Change ...
  86. Exercise App Encourages Fitness While Helping Sick Kids ...
  87. Farmer Makes “Tater Tats” for All Your Produce Tattoo Needs ...
  88. Fashion Buyer Creates Quirky Comfort Craze
  89. Father and Son Duo Produce Traveling Play
  90. Faux Taxidermy Turns Heads on Home Decor
  91. Fidget Spinner Cookie Sensation Leads to Sweet Profits
  92. Finance Guy Makes Bank With Swimsuit Line | Side Hustle ...
  93. Firefighter Uses Chainsaw for Jumbo-Sized Woodworking ...
  94. Flipping 101: The College Textbook Edition
  95. Florist & Sculpture Professor Make Presidential Lip Balm ...
  96. Foreign Correspondent Launches Career App
  97. Former NFL Player Sells Ice Shakers for $20000/Month Income
  98. Freelancer Starts New Hustle to Help Frustrated Clients
  99. Friends Foster Korean Face Mask Frenzy
  100. Friends Team Up to Deliver Compassionate Tech Support ...
  101. Friends Turn Gift Boxes into Prosperous Project
  102. Frustrated Mom Grows Hair Brush Hustle to Seven Figures ...
  103. Full-Time Mom Ships $35,000/Month in Frozen Bread on ...
  104. Gamer Levels Up Life With eBay Side Hustle
  105. German Funeral Urns Are Not a Dying Business
  106. Guitar Builder Carves Out Woodworking Moneymaker
  107. Guitar Teacher Sells Lessons on Craigslist and Makes $80/Hour
  108. Hair Salon Owner Designs Mittens for Cold Runners
  109. Hand Grippers Make for a $60,000-Strong Hustle
  110. Hand Lettering Artist Upgrades Cheesy Photo Booth Props ...
  111. Handkerchief Side Hustle Becomes Million-Dollar Blowout ...
  112. Harvard Med School Program Manager Gets Paid to Travel to ...
  113. Health Scare Inspires Adventurous Career Change
  114. High School Bootlegger Grows Up
  115. High School Teacher Spins His Way to Profits
  116. High School Teacher Turns Woodworking Hobby Into a 5 ...
  117. Honeymoon in Nepal Becomes Fashion Accessories Business
  118. Husband and Wife Team Pampers Their Way To Profit
  119. Insomniac Dreams Up Herbal Hustle
  120. Insult This! Witty Event Organizer Prepares You to Respond to ...
  121. Introvert Builds Networking Experience to Help Women
  122. Jailhouse Medic Turns House Calls Into Healthy Profits | Side ...
  123. Japanese Designer Folds Profitable Paper Wallets
  124. Jiu-Jitsu Instructor Pins Down Mobile Workout Tool
  125. Job Recruiter Helps LinkedIn Connections with Resumes ...
  126. Junk Removal Service Owner Earns $22,000 A Year From ...
  127. Kids' Books Prove To Be More Than Child's Play
  128. Kiwi Coder Makes Extra $50000/Year from Virtual Paintbrushes
  129. LA Graphic Designer Influences Influencers
  130. Lawyer Moonlights as Needle-Felt Children's Book Author ...
  131. Left-Handed Artist Creates Right-Brained Side Hustle
  132. Librarian Invents Eco-Friendly Dental Floss
  133. Lifelong Girl Scout Earns Her Side Hustle Badge (And $3,500 ...
  134. London Chocolate Tours Lead to Sweet Success
  135. London Clerk Hires Ghosts to Visit Boss, Earns Passive Income
  136. London Photographer Rents Camera Gear 1,100 Times
  137. Lost & Found: How Lost Property Helps a UK Woman Find Her ...
  138. Maine Couple Bootstraps Boutique Fitness Studio
  139. Make $4,000/Month Renting Out Cars You Don't Own
  140. Man Buys 100 Animal Skulls from Bali; Turns $10,000 Into ...
  141. Man Earns $100,000 Serving Clients on $5 Website
  142. Man Earns $85000 Promoting Mexican Avocados on Snapchat
  143. Marathon Runner Earns Full-Time Income Trying On Shoes ...
  144. Marketing Consultant Creates Private Retreats
  145. Marketing Professional Produces Giant Puppet Performances ...
  146. Marriage Inspires Theatre Captioning App & Service
  147. Mental Health Counselor By Day, Headband Artist by Night ...
  148. Millennial Invests Side Income For Passive Profits
  149. Mindful Moms Make $70,000 on Family Affirmation Cards ...
  150. Mindreading Performer Goes from Dorm Room to Paid ...
  151. Miniature Dollhouse Website Pays Full-Size Profits
  152. Mom Finds Love As Dating App Ghostwriter
  153. Money Grows on Moringa Trees
  154. Moonlighting Makeup Artist Earns Extra $25,000/Year | Side ...
  155. Movie Editor Turns 19th Century Art Into Full-Time Job
  156. Multiple-Use Plastics Take Big Bite for the Environment
  157. Museum Educator Improvises From Day Job to Side Hustle ...
  158. Music Graduate Makes Spare Change Filling Spare Rooms ...
  159. Musician Turns Drum Lessons Into Six-Figure Podcast
  160. NYC Banker Launches All-Natural, Drinkable Pickle Brine ...
  161. Nature-Loving Neighbors Create Kids Subscription Box
  162. Networking Success Is Served with a Side of Eggs
  163. New Jersey Blog Earns Six-Figure Income
  164. New Mom Recruits 3,000 Chinese Caregivers
  165. New Mom Uses Pinterest to Launch Parenting Blog
  166. New Mother Gives Life To Self-Care Coaching Business
  167. New Yorker Covers Up With Comfy Underwear Line
  168. No Guts, No Gory: The Hollywood Mom & Pop Prop Shop ...
  169. Nomad Family Cooks Up $40,000 Profit With Houseware ...
  170. Nomadic Designer Profits from Writing About Life in a Bag ...
  171. Oh Snap! Photography Site Turns Into Passive Income Hustle ...
  172. Oklahoman Spreads Light, Sells Candles, and Shares Profits ...
  173. On-the-Go Mouthwash Gets Mini-Makeover
  174. One Man's Trashed Mash is Another Man's Cash
  175. Operations Manager Manages to Make Heavy Furniture Light ...
  176. Organic Loungewear Becomes Sleeper Sensation
  177. Orthodontist Bites Off Solution to Teeth-Pulling Problem
  178. Outdoorsman Sees the Forest for the Trees, Finds Financial ...
  179. Outsource Date Night With This Sexy Side Hustle
  180. PE Teacher Makes $11,000 with Membership Site
  181. PE Teacher Resells Concert Tickets, Earns $12,000/Month ...
  182. Paralegal Takes Flight with Remote Work
  183. Paternal Twins Produce Passive Publishing Profits
  184. Pathetic Triathlete Creates $30,000 Facebook Group
  185. Pay Off Student Loans With Your Spare Change
  186. Philadelphia Foodie Toasts Competition with Sweet Treat ...
  187. Philadelphia Lover Maps Out $35,000/Year Side Hustle
  188. Photographer Visits 30 Countries, Leading Tours & Getting Paid
  189. Physical Therapist Sells 57,000 “Neck Hammocks”
  190. Physician Assistant Earns $12,000 In 10 Months Coaching ...
  191. Police Officer Funnels Frustration Into Six-Figure Hustle
  192. Policy Researcher Offers Private Tours of Nation's Capital ...
  193. Popular Instagram Account Becomes Fashionable Clothing ...
  194. Pottery Barn Commissions Art from Independent Photographer
  195. Proud Mainer Brings Whoopie Pies to the World
  196. Public Health Employee Earns Extra $2,000/Month with ...
  197. Published Author Adds Income Source; Makes Additional ...
  198. Put a Cap in It: Architect Makes the Write Choice; Starts Luxury ...
  199. Q&A: How can I inspire a “Must-Have-This” service?
  200. Q&A: How can I turn furniture repair into passive income ...
  201. Q&A: Is it still possible to profit from a blog?
  202. Q&A: What are your best tips for Etsy?
  203. Q&A: When should I start posting on social media?
  204. Rehearsal App for Actors Earns $500,000
  205. Resistance Is Futile! Brooklyn Fitness Fanatics Sell “No Days ...
  206. Role-Playing Pastor Rolls The Dice On $2800/Month Hustle ...
  207. Romance Novel Expert Teaches Proofreading for $2000/Month
  208. Sales Rep Seasons the Day with “Bad Spanish Tacos”
  209. Savvy Bride Turns Budget Wedding Into Six Figure Success ...
  210. Savvy Sleeper Pillowcases Produce Dreamy Profits for Tech ...
  211. Savvy Stationery Site Offers Cards for Divorce & Diwali
  212. Seattle Developer Takes Flight With Popular Travel Site
  213. Second Grade Teacher Earns Second Income
  214. Serial Business Builder Creates Digital Checklist Tool
  215. Should I hire a lawyer and get a patent?
  216. Side Hustle Turned Full-Time Job Disrupts Car Rental Industry ...
  217. Sisters Find Puppy Love After Launching Dating App
  218. Social Worker Bakes Cupcakes for The Walking Dead
  219. Software Engineer Scavenges For Profits
  220. South African Writer Launches Accidental Acting Career
  221. South Carolina Man Learns to Make Candles by Watching ...
  222. Speech Pathologist Sells Turkish Tea Towels By the Seashore ...
  223. Sports Writer Wins Big Gambling On His Own Book
  224. Squeaky Clean Couple Raise the Bar with Online Soap Sales ...
  225. Store Manager Makes Micro Gainz For Macro Profits
  226. Stressed-Out Mom Gives Up TV to Launch Her Hustle
  227. Student Bytes Into Lucrative Web Host Biz
  228. Student Gets Paid to Help People Rent Adventures
  229. Stylish Clothes Reseller Becomes Fashion Consultant
  230. Super Fan Scores Big in the Football Community
  231. Tailor-Made Teas Brew Steamy Steeped-In Profits
  232. Teacher Hustles to Pay Off $100,000 in Student Loans
  233. Tech Broker Moonlights as Luxury Lifestyle Artist
  234. Teenage Fitness Fan Jumpstarts Athletic Apparel Brand
  235. Tennessean Meets Nepalese Sherpa on Lyft Ride, Sells ...
  236. Texas Couple Turns Test Scores Into Treasure
  237. That's the Spot! Dog Lover's Hustle Becomes Fur-ever Biz ...
  238. The 10-Year Quest for Must-Have Mustard
  239. The Battle of the New Zealand SpeedCubers
  240. The Hero's Journal Helps You Make Progress Toward Your ...
  241. The Paleo Bagel: No Wheat, No Worries
  242. The Rise and Fall of BirdSupplies.com
  243. The Sisterhood of the Traveling Digital Nomads
  244. The Snuggle Is Real: Architect Moonlights by Selling Designer ...
  245. Think Like a Lawyer: An Underground School For Lifelong ...
  246. This Standing Desk Costs Just $37
  247. Toronto Startup Employee Bakes Custom Cakes
  248. Tote-ally Functional Bags for Women on the Go
  249. Trip to Europe Inspires Adventurous Blanket Biz
  250. Turn It Up to 11! Musical Mash-Ups Provide Passive Income ...
  251. Tuscan Vacation Inspires Leatherworking Hustle
  252. Twelve Months of Experiments Leads Coach to Clarity
  253. Two Women Create Swimwear Brand for D-Cups and Up ...
  254. Un-Tours Of Myanmar Offer Adventure and Unpredictability ...
  255. University Director Turns Draining Problem Into Profitable ...
  256. Vegan Food Lovers Sprout Plant-Based Festivals
  257. Vintage Clothing Shop Sells Retro Jeans for Modern Money ...
  258. WEEKLY RECAP: 3 Priorities to Keep You Focused
  259. WEEKLY RECAP: All the Things You Want to Do
  260. WEEKLY RECAP: Barking Up the Right Tree
  261. WEEKLY RECAP: Before Beginning, Prepare Carefully
  262. WEEKLY RECAP: Do You Have to Be Passionate About What ...
  263. WEEKLY RECAP: Does Your Idea Pass the Grandmother Test ...
  264. WEEKLY RECAP: Going from Hobby to Hustle
  265. WEEKLY RECAP: Government Shuts Down, Your Life ...
  266. WEEKLY RECAP: Health Coaches May Need to Be Certified ...
  267. WEEKLY RECAP: How to Design a Profitable Online Course ...
  268. WEEKLY RECAP: If You Ever Feel Insecure, Don't Miss This ...
  269. WEEKLY RECAP: Keeping Up With What Matters
  270. WEEKLY RECAP: Pay Attention to the Ideas In Your Head ...
  271. WEEKLY RECAP: Scavenger Hunts, Bow Ties, & Horses ...
  272. WEEKLY RECAP: The $0 Startup, Sign Hustles, and Ways to ...
  273. WEEKLY RECAP: The Conversion Problem
  274. WEEKLY RECAP: Tiny Houses, T-Shirts, and Romance Novels
  275. WEEKLY RECAP: Understand Your Ideal Working Conditions ...
  276. WEEKLY RECAP: What Prevents You From Making Progress ...
  277. WEEKLY RECAP: Why Do a Product Launch Only Twice a ...
  278. WEEKLY RECAP: Why You Should “Return Every Handshake ...
  279. Wedding App Founder Exchanges Vows for Coding Book Biz ...
  280. Wedding Bells Ring Brighter if the Bride's Not Broke
  281. Weekend “Book Registry” Site Earns Passive Income from ...
  282. Weekly Recap: All You Need Is Luck and a Million Dollars ...
  283. Weekly Recap: Don't Compete with Amazon
  284. Weekly Recap: Find a Community to Support Your Goals ...
  285. Weekly Recap: Food Trucks, YouTube Makeup, and Marijuana
  286. Weekly Recap: How to Identify Side Hustle Ideas in Your ...
  287. Weekly Recap: How to Stop Procrastinating (Really!)
  288. Weekly Recap: Making Time for What Matters
  289. Weekly Recap: Should You Ever Buy Someone Else's ...
  290. Weekly Recap: Starting a Coffee Delivery Service
  291. Weekly Recap: Starting and Ending a Seasonal Side Hustle ...
  292. Weekly Recap: Weekly Recap: Finding a “Hook” as a Dietitian ...
  293. Weekly Recap: What Kind of Profit Margin Should You Have ...
  294. Weekly Recap: Will People Pay for History Lessons?
  295. Weekly Recap: Winning the Side Hustle Lottery
  296. Weekly Recap: “This Time, It's Different”
  297. What's In the Box? Low-Carb, Low-Sugar Snacks
  298. When Fashion Flops, This Designer Follows a Shiny Object ...
  299. Yoga Enthusiast Stretches B-School Education Into Fair-Trade ...
  300. Yoga Teacher Cleans Up with Home Organizing Business ...
  301. Zombie Apocalypse Prevention Podcast Earns $200,000/Year ...
  302. “Bendy Straw” Idea Raises $1.8M on Kickstarter
  303. “Fun Guy” Becomes Spore-Adic Mushroom Farmer
  304. “Random Acts of Kindness” Project Earns Non-Random Cash ...
  305. “SwitchPod” Camera Tool Raises $415,748 on Kickstarter ...
  306. “Teachers Against Humanities” Card Deck Unites Educators ...
submitted by 1913intel to sidehustle [link] [comments]

Upon the Fortune of this Present Year | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - November 2019

My ventures are not in one bottom trusted, Nor to one place; nor is my whole estate Upon the fortune of this present year Therefore my merchandise makes me not sad
Shakespeare, The Merchant of Venice (1596)
This is my thirty-sixth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals.
Portfolio goals
My objectives are to reach a portfolio of:
Both of these are based on an expected average real return of 4.19 per cent, or a nominal return of 7.19 per cent, and are expressed in 2018 dollars.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $797 618 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $45 218 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $81 294 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $109 367 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $158 769 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $28 471 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $268 114 Telstra shares (TLS) – $2 057 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $9 996 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $8 100 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $98 376 Secured physical gold – $15 868 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $16 915 Bitcoin – $128 630 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $17 535 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 377 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 418
Total portfolio value: $1 793 753 (+$33 713)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 43.2% (1.8% under) Global shares – 22.9% Emerging markets shares – 2.4% International small companies – 3.2% Total international shares – 28.4% (1.6% under) Total shares – 71.6% (3.4% under) Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over) Australian bonds – 4.8% International bonds – 9.8% Total bonds – 14.6% (0.4% under) Gold – 6.4% Bitcoin – 7.2% Gold and alternatives – 13.5% (3.5% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
This month the value of the portfolio increased again by around $33 000 in total, building on the previous two months of growth.
[Chart]
The equity part of the portfolio has grown by around $50 000 to now reach over $1.25 million for the first time. This increase includes new contributions and the last part of the previous June distributions being 'averaged into' equity markets. The equity component of the portfolio has increased by around 40 per cent this calendar year.
The only other major movement in the monthly value of the portfolio has been a sharp downward movement in the price of Bitcoin, and a small increase in the value of bond holdings.
[Chart]
The contributions this month went entirely into the Vanguard Australian shares ETF (VAS.ASX), to reduce the gap to both the overall target equity allocation, and to achieve the target split between Australian and global shares. From this month onwards I expect more regular variations in whether new contributions go to either Australian or global shares, based on keeping this target allocation constant.
Charting errors and wrong bearings - the nature of long-term returns
Over the last month, as the end destination starts to appear a little clearer in the distance, the issue of the nature of long-term returns has been front of mind.
There is a strong literature and body of academic work around long-term equity return expectations. Much of this has informed my thinking, and has over time found its way into the corners of financial independence movement through the avenues of the so-called Trinity and Bengen '4 per cent' studies (pdf), and a range of calculators that use historical data to help guide investors expectations around feasible future returns.
Yet, as I have noted before, future states of the world are not drawn from the same distribution as the past - or as the British writer G K Chesterton evocatively put it - 'wildness lies in wait'. Most often this issue is glided over neatly (including by myself) with assured sounding phrases such as 'based on history'.
The works of Nassim Taleb, most particularly Fooled by Randomness, and The Black Swan, provide a fuller perspective on these issues. Recently though, reading a 2017 paper Stock Market Charts You Never Saw provided a unique and arresting view of their application to long-term return projections.
The paper is long and detailed, but makes some fundamental points for consideration. It provides a challenging perspective on investment returns that falls almost completely out of mainstream discussions of the topic in the financial independence arena.
To summarise, the paper highlights that:
As the paper notes:
"When investment advisors counsel that stocks are the best bet for a long investment horizon, they should append the acknowledgement: “if my market timing is good.” When advisors argue for stocks over bonds, they should append the caveat “as long as you are not French, or Italian, or Japanese, or Swiss, and provided that the 20th century is a better guide to the future than the 19th century.” For real investors with their limited time horizons, who may reside anywhere in the world, there have been times when both stock recommendations were bad."
The issue of the primacy of total returns, compared to income returns is also bracingly challenged with reference to the drawdown phase:
Once portfolio accumulation ceases with retirement, portfolio income must be spent to live. Under those circumstances real price return, over short periods lasting two or three decades, becomes an important metric. By that measure, an investment in stocks has been dicey indeed.
Usefully, the paper sets out (at the end) both conventional charts, and alternative representations of the same returns data, aimed at illustrating the hidden biases and properties of standard charts of market returns.
In short, the paper poses challenges to many conventional investment tenets assumed to be true and widely repeated within financial independence discussions. Often these tenets are promoted with the sound and well-meaning goal of reducing new or existing investors caution or level of worry around possible falls in equity markets. The question this work implicitly poses is, in the process, are distorted expectations unintentionally being promoted?
Drawing out the lessons - understanding and responding to risks
What are the practical implications of this? The most obvious is to look closely at how data is presented and to think carefully about how the assumptions implicit in that presentation line up against ones own situation.
Some other implications include:
In other words - to paraphrase Shakespeare's Antonio - not trusting ones ventures to one ship, place, or a fortune upon the present year.
Progress
Progress against the objectives, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets Objective #1 – $1 598 000 (or $67 000 pa) 112.2% 153.0% Objective #2 – $1 980 000 (or $83 000 pa) 90.6% 123.5% Credit card purchases - $73 000 pa 103.0% 140.4% Total expenses - $89 000 pa 84.5% 115.1%
Summary
As the year begins to draw to a close, a restlessness to see its final outcomes, in dividends and portfolio growth presses itself forward. It is in fact a small echo of one of the strong temptations of the middle of the FI journey - a desire to wish away time itself.
Some potential upcoming changes and uncertainties in work situation have added force to this temptation, forcing some thoughts about different potential balances between work and other elements of daily life could be.
By distance, the intended journey is around ninety per cent over. At times this introduces both an elegiac quality to, and a premature desire to mark, possible 'lasts' along the journey.
Yet the extraordinary current state of financial markets gives pause. Policy makers and advisors casually discuss negative rates and their implications, even as Australian and US equity markets hit new highs. In a sense, it feels a more psychologically testing time to be closer to my higher target allocation for equities than any time before.
The diversification in the portfolio can be thought of as a series of small hedges against different potential futures playing out. By far, the largest probability (or potential future) at 75 per cent, is that the historical dominance of equity as a generator of real returns continues to function.
The remainder of the portfolio can be seen in some ways as a offsetting hedge against large equity market falls, or some other disturbance in financial markets with negative implications for equity. At base, however, I remain comfortable with the 'balance of probabilities' implied in the target asset allocation.
This month saw a new (v)blogger Mx Lauren join the Australian FI scene, as well as the suggestion by Money Magazine of a new 'simplified' retirement rule of thumb to consider.
A further piece of fascinating reading was this piece by Ben Carlson in Fortune Magazine, explaining the key role of earnings growth in recent US market return. It posits that the recent strong performance of US equities is attributable to fundamental earnings growth, rather than simply an unjustified expansion in the price investors are willing to pay for that growth.
This - in addition to Shakespeare's pre-modern enjoinment to diversify - is potentially another reason to not confine considerations to one market, and one place, as December distributions slowly drift into sight.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
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For Trading February 28

For Trading February 28th
RATES FALL TO NEW LOWS
COVID-19 IS THE ISSUE
Energy Still DEVASTATED
Worst Point Loss in History
Today’s market was another dramatic decline. We were down 960 early and then the market made a gallant effort from 10:45 to move higher, eventually getting back to -200 and then the news from California that there was an “unknown origin” case diagnosed which raised to possibility of “community” spread of the virus and we started to sink again. That caused some selling, that was fairly well contained between -200 and -400 until about 2:30 or so when the margin clerks took over and started selling. I know that most people don’t quite get the connection since they don’t really deal with brokers, since they have moved to online trading, but here’s how it “used to” work. You’d get a margin call and your broker would call and you could “bring him / her a check.” There was a relationship between the parties and if you did what you said you were going to do over time (relationship) you could do that. Now, there are no relationships between the broker (who even has one) and if the money hasn’t been wired in to the firm, you’re sold out. It’s not a limit order that may or may not get done, it’s a market order given to a machine.
So, the bottom line was that the DJIA had its worst day in history -1190.95 (4.42%), NASDAQ -414.29 (4.61%), S&P-500 -137.63 (4.42%), the Russell -54.89 (3.53%), DJ Transports, the only one that actually traded higher mid-day, closed - 356.45 (3.62%). Today’s loss was the worst point loss, but well below the 22.6% decline of October 19, 1987. To put that into perspective, the October 29, 1929 Crash that started the Great Depression was 12.8%.
Market internals were again negative with the NYSE 8:1 and NASDAQ 5.5:1. The DJIA had only 1 gainer, MMM was +8 DPs, and while I usually breakdown the double-digit losers, there were only 2 losers that were NOT double digits. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: It was another tough day and I’m going to depart from my normal listing of all the stocks in each sector and just give a highlight of a few of the biggest gainers (yes there were some). As you can imagine, they were mostly Biotech. The first is Co-Diagnostics (CODX) which started higher last month from a low of $ .88, and by mid-January had already traded $4.24. The real action started yesterday when it close $8.90 +4.58 (106%) on the news that it was making progress for a COVID-19 test. Most of the news today centered around an offering they were doing but mostly it was repeated trading halts and resumed for volatility. By the end of the day it had traded $19.67 and closed $15.96 +7.06 (79%). It’s currently $16.90 +2.01. Alpha Pro Tech (APT) is a maker of Face Masks. It was halted this morning when it disclosed an order for its N-95 mask for Coronavirus. As with CODX, it started in January at $3.42 and on Monday it was $7.14 +1.44 (25.26%), but move higher this week to trade $27.50 before closing $25.25 +12.86 (103%) and has moved higher tonight to $33.61 and is currently $33.10 +7.60 (29.8%).
Last night I wrote up Moderna Inc., (MRNA) who shipped its first batch of an experimental vaccine to NIAIC, and the stock was up yesterday to $23.76 +5.17, continued today to a high of $29.98 and finished $29.16 +5.40 (22.73%). Today it got a bit ahead of itself and after trading $36.00 fell back to $23.05 and finished $26.16 -3.00 (10.29%) and has gained a bit tonight to $27.98. Gilead (GILD), also a vaccine producer that had moved higher really took off today closing $74.70 + 4.60, but announced its own Phase-2 trials and had a great run also to trade $78.88 before getting coverage by Barclay’s at underweight and a price objective of $62.00. In Bio, but not COVID-19 related was Forty-Seven, Inc., (FTSV) a clinical-stage immune-oncology company announced yesterday that they were going to present at a Cowen conference next week. That’s it, no specifics but the stock, which close $48.79 +.49 but in extended trading has hit $77.00 and is currently $62.60 +13.81 (28.3%).
Now comes the departure from my normal format. This afternoon, after the close I heard Jeremy Siegel from Wharton speaking about the markets. He has been bullish for as long as I can remember, and he was saying that due to the current issues, that he felt that they would cut back on capital expenditures “Cap-ex” spending. Is he kidding? I have been railing about the fact that there has been NO Cap-ex spending at all and that I was tired of the constant lowered expectations that were reported as “beats.” I can’t even count how many times I’ve said “a beat of lowered expectations in NOT a beat.” And, buybacks produce nothing in the way of productivity gains or any competitive advantage. While I’m not a “the CEOs have to be stopped,” it has clearly come home to roost. You can’t increase productivity (cut payroll) without spending any money on plant and equipment and expect to have a supply chain 6000 miles away that has a problem producing and expect to maintain your business.
I did a little buying this morning in TEVA, and while it closed a touch lower, it took no time for it to run up 5% with any let up in the selling.
BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with most down around the same as the market AROUND 4-5%. LABU was the biggest loser -6.05 (12.26%) and the IBB $112.99 -5.27 (5.37%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with several down in double-digit percentages. The biggest losers were NBEV -.33 (14.8%) and PYX-.50 (12.32%). KERN, the maker of compliance software was - .51 (6.46%) and the ETF, MJ $14.18 -.76 (5.09%). I believe this group is broken and it will be a while before any of these are investable. Not untradeable, but uninvestable!
DEFENSE: was LOWER AGAIN with most lower by 3.5 to 5%, and ITA was $203.75 -10.23 (4.78%).
RETAIL was LOWER and the brands were the weakest. DDS was the biggest loser -5.04 (8.57%) and LULU on the brand side was -18.56 (7.78%). XRT was $40.54 -1.17 (2.81%). XRT $41.71-.98 (2.3%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were the BIGGEST LOSERS with GOOGL -78.72, AMZN -109.59, AAPL -21.75, FB -8.92, NFLX -6.74, NVDA -15.99, TSLA -123.78 (15.9%), BABA -3.84, BOIDU -3.99, IBM -7.36, BA -19.49, CAT -5.35, DIS -5.51, BOX +.30, MSFT -11.99 (7.05%) and XLK $87.70 -5.00 (5.39%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with the fall in rates, GS -10.09, JPM -5.64, BAC -1.55, MS -2.04, C -3.74, PNC -8.06, AIG -1.75, TRV -5.08, AXP -6.00 and XLF $27.33 -1.22 (4.27%).
OIL, $47.09 -1.64. Friday we were down early and closed better and I thought we had held $52. Today, we were lower again and the break below $46 was a disappointment. I’m still bearish, but it’s difficult to be a seller down here. The stocks were LOWER with the XLE $45.31 -2.56 (5.35%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,642.50 -.60. After the breakout run to the high of $1691.70 yesterday it gapped down and traded 1626, another new lower low of 626 before a close mid-range again. Tonight we are +1.50. I still want to get on the long-side again.
BITCOIN: closed $8,890 + 110. We broke to the upside to hit $10,620 last week and have had daily rallies and sell-offs, but the weekly is on support and I think we will move higher. Today’s action puts that in question on the Daily, but the weekly is still okay. We own 750 GBTC with an average of $8.89. GBTC closed $10.53 + .17 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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Bitcoin 4 Dimensional Chart (Time, BTC/USD, BTC/Gold, and BTC/SPX) Bitcoin Chart Technical Analysis for 07-13-2020 Bitcoin Chart Technical Analysis for 07-17-2020 Bitcoin + Alts Price Chart & Analysis (July 14th, 2020) BITCOIN ON THE ONE WEEK CHART!! WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF??

Bitcoin price and market cap (log scale) through November 2019. Early Trading: Bitcoin History . Bitcoin really started to take off in 2013. The digital currency began the year trading at around The chart below displays Bitcoin’s price throughout different timeframes. Scale: Canadian asset manager 3iQ has become the first firm to launch a fund tied to Bitcoin on the Toronto Stock Exchange analyzed over 200 gigabytes of data for the transaction history between bitcoin and tether, another digital currency. Bitcoin Price (BTC). Price chart, trade volume, market cap, and more. Discover new cryptocurrencies to add to your portfolio. The Crypto Daily – The Movers and Shakers – July 19th, 2020. It’s a relatively bullish start to the day. Bitcoin would need to avoid the pivot at $9,175 to support a run at $9,300 levels… Discover historical prices for BTC-USD stock on Yahoo Finance. View daily, weekly or monthly format back to when Bitcoin USD stock was issued.

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Bitcoin 4 Dimensional Chart (Time, BTC/USD, BTC/Gold, and BTC/SPX)

Learn how to read stock charts and identify technical patterns as ClayTrader does a quick stock chart review on Bitcoin (Bitcoin). Watch more Bitcoin Technical Analysis Videos: https://claytrader ... Learn how to read stock charts and identify technical patterns as ClayTrader does a quick stock chart review on Bitcoin (Bitcoin). Watch more Bitcoin Technical Analysis Videos: https://claytrader ... Learn how to read stock charts and identify technical patterns as ClayTrader does a quick stock chart review on Bitcoin (Bitcoin). ... HISTORY OF IDEAS - Capitalism - Duration: 11:46. We explore a 4-dimensional Bitcoin chart where we plot the price of BTC against time, the valuation with respect to the S&P 500, and the valuation with respect to gold (color-coded). Bitcoin Daily Chart (2012-2018) Bitcoin History Chart.

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